Four myths of Uruguayan politics: Martín Aguirre analyzes Orsi, Oddone, and 'outsiders'

Political analyst Martín Aguirre has challenged four deeply ingrained myths about Uruguay's political landscape, suggesting that preconceptions about voter behavior and electoral outcomes may be misleading.

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If you look at what happened in the last elections, there is a phenomenon that gathers 10%, 15%, some mention up to 20% of the electorate, of people who are not very satisfied with what is happening and who try things.

In a recent streaming program, Aguirre, the editorial director of the newspaper El País, addressed common assumptions, including the potential for "outsider" candidates, the notion of declining support for the ruling party, the feasibility of "technical candidacies" for the 2029 elections, and the perceived volatility of the electoral scene.

Aguirre contends that Uruguay is not immune to the "anti-politics" sentiment or the appeal of "outsider" candidates. He pointed to recent election results, where 10% to 20% of the electorate expressed dissatisfaction and explored alternative options. He cited the performance of parties like PERI and Cabildo Abierto in 2019, and Gustavo Salle's party winning two seats in the Chamber of Deputies, as evidence of a social discontent fueled by social media. However, he noted that it remains to be seen whether this phenomenon will consolidate or remain dispersed.

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Orsi was not a candidate who promised to come with a radical left-wing recipe or to 'shake the roots of the trees,' as Tabaré Vázquez once said, but rather promised a more moderate government, with a market economy.

Regarding President Yamandú Orsi's fluctuating approval ratings, Aguirre dismissed the idea that the decline stems from a lack of radicalization within the ruling Frente Amplio base. He explained that Orsi's platform was not one of radical left-wing policies but rather a more moderate government with a market economy. Aguirre emphasized that dissatisfaction typically comes from independent voters whose support is dynamic and can shift.

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I don't know many economy ministers who have been successful presidential candidates.

Looking ahead to the 2029 elections, Aguirre expressed skepticism about Economy Minister Gabriel Oddone emerging as a successful presidential candidate. He noted that few economy ministers have achieved presidential success and questioned whether Oddone would risk an internal party primary against a strong contender like Carolina Cosse, whom Aguirre believes polls well within the Frente Amplio. Finally, Aguirre refuted the myth that the 2029 election is already decided, stating that with over a year of the current administration's term remaining, such predictions are premature.

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If you look at the latest polls, there is a figure that is not mentioned as much in the Frente Amplio, but for me, it comes out quite well, and that is Carolina Cosse. Would a person like Oddone be willing to risk going into a primary and losing to Carolina Cosse? I think it's hard to imagine.