German far-right AfD eyes strong gains in eastern state elections

Two weeks before the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised for a significant victory, with polls suggesting it could even achieve an absolute majority. This potential win comes amid a crisis for the governing parties and with two more regional elections scheduled before the end of September.

Recent polling by pollytix shows the AfD leading with 43% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. The center-right CDU, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, trails at 23%, followed by Die Linke at 13%, the SPD at 7%, and the Greens at 5%. If the Greens and SPD fall below the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, the AfD could secure an absolute majority, forming a government independently for the first time in a German state.

In response, two initiatives have emerged, urging tactical voting for the SPD or the Greens to ensure their parliamentary presence and prevent an AfD majority. However, even if the AfD does not win an outright majority, the results are expected to complicate matters for the CDU, its state premier Sven Schulze, and party leader Merz. The CDU has a stated policy of not cooperating with either the AfD or Die Linke.

The AfD has consistently accused the CDU of abandoning conservative principles during Angela Merkel's era. Merz, who positioned himself as the leader of the CDU's conservative wing, aimed to halve the AfD's electoral support. Instead, the AfD's support has reportedly doubled, particularly in eastern Germany, the former GDR territory, where it capitalizes on anti-West sentiments. In 2024, the AfD was the leading party in Thuringia, another eastern state, securing 32.8% of the vote.