Global smartphone market faces winter, 2026 shipments estimated to drop 14.3%

The global smartphone market faces significant headwinds, with industry research firm Counterpoint Research forecasting a 14.3% year-over-year decline in shipments for 2026. This downturn is attributed to a confluence of factors, including persistently rising component costs, a reduction in the supply of low-cost devices, and strained consumer purchasing power. The mid-to-low-end market segments are expected to bear the brunt of this decline, while the high-end market demonstrates greater resilience.

Component costs for mobile device memory and SoCs have climbed, compelling smartphone brands to re-evaluate product specifications, pricing, and portfolio strategies, particularly impacting low-margin products. While channel inventory has been gradually digested in the first half of the year, brands may further adjust shipment and production orders in the second half, with market pressures potentially extending into 2027.

In this challenging landscape, Samsung is poised for growth, with its 2026 shipments projected to increase by 0.8%. This performance is expected to elevate Samsung's market share to the global number one position amidst the overall market contraction. Apple's shipments are forecast to decline by 2.1%, a figure notably better than the market average. The anticipated launch of Apple's first foldable iPhone in the third quarter is seen as a potential catalyst for demand in the premium segment.

Conversely, major Chinese smartphone brands are expected to see shipment declines ranging from 15% to 34% in 2026, facing considerable pressure in the mid-to-low-price tiers and emerging markets. Huawei, however, shows a comparatively stronger trend, with an estimated 8% year-over-year increase in shipments, driven by demand within the Chinese market and improvements in its domestic component capabilities. Counterpoint Research identifies component costs, product pricing, and consumer purchasing power as key variables for the market's future. A recovery and return to growth are not expected before 2028, contingent on improved supply conditions and the release of deferred upgrade demand.