Greece's Debt to Fall Below US Level by 2027, OECD Predicts

Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall below that of the United States by 2027, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD forecasts Greece's debt will reach 129.8% of its Gross Domestic Product by 2027, while the U.S. ratio is expected to climb to 131.3% in the same year.

This development would see Greece move down the global rankings of highly indebted nations. Italy is poised to overtake Greece as the most indebted country in Europe this year, with its debt-to-GDP ratio estimated to reach 138.8%. The Greek government's own projections are more conservative than the OECD's, but still anticipate a debt ratio lower than Italy's.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers a slightly different timeline, estimating that Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio will fall below that of the U.S. in 2028. The IMF projects Greece's debt at 136.9% this year, compared to Italy's 138.4%, and expects it to drop to 130.3% in 2027 before reaching 125.2% in 2028. The U.S. debt is projected to be 132.2% in 2028.

Until 2025, Greece was the second most indebted country within the OECD, following Japan, with Italy third and the U.S. fourth. By 2027, Japan is expected to remain the most indebted, followed by Italy, then the U.S., and finally Greece. The OECD also noted that the U.S. deficit is expected to widen to 8% of GDP this year and remain high at 7.7% in 2027, while Greece is predicted to maintain high primary surpluses of 2.6% of GDP.