Hamas Leadership Change Unlikely to Alter Group's Trajectory, Expert Says

Khalil al-Hayya's recent election as the head of Hamas's political bureau will likely bring "little change" to the terror group's operations, according to Dr. Michael Milshtein, an expert on Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv University.

Milshtein, speaking to The Jerusalem Post, noted that Hayya has effectively been leading Hamas's political wing from Qatar for years, especially after the assassination of his predecessors. While Khaled Meshaal, another contender, might have focused on restoring relations between Gaza and the West Bank, Hayya's priority remains the Gaza Strip itself.

“

Little will change in Hamas now that Khalil al-Hayya has been named head of its political bureau, though the terror group will now enjoy not having the financial burden of administering the Gaza Strip.

"There is a kind of an illusion that you know Meshaal is moderate, but there is no ideological difference between the two," Milshtein said, expressing skepticism about any significant reconciliation efforts with the Palestinian Authority, despite past talks to mend the rift created when Hamas expelled the PA from Gaza in 2007.

Hayya's standing within the Muslim world, including his reported relationships with Iran, Qatar, and Egypt, could offer Hamas more leverage. Milshtein suggested this popularity might allow Hamas to operate with greater independence than groups like Hezbollah, while still benefiting from Iran's financial and logistical support.

“

There is a kind of an illusion that you know Meshaal is moderate, but there is no ideological difference between the two.

"It doesn’t mean that Hamas is going to be kind of a proxy of Iran. They never saw themselves as a kind of player that must obey Iran, and right now it will be the same," Milshtein commented.

“

It doesn’t mean that Hamas is going to be kind of a proxy of Iran. They never saw themselves as a kind of player that must obey Iran, and right now it will be the same.

Milshtein anticipates Hayya's immediate focus will be on advancing specific aspects of a "second phase agreement" with Israel. This includes promoting a technocratic government and the deployment of international forces, while firmly rejecting demands for total and immediate disarmament.

"I’m quite sure that in the day after the elections, we will find ourselves in the same situation as the day before," he predicted, adding that Jerusalem has been hesitant to make significant moves until late October. Milshtein believes Hamas "doesn’t really feel afraid" and views the handover of Gaza's administration to a US-backed committee as a "cosmetic cover" that will allow Hamas to maintain its influence.

“

I’m quite sure that in the day after the elections, we will find ourselves in the same situation as the day before.