Heavy downpours may hit Central Asia this summer, UN forecast says

Central Asian countries could face extreme heavy downpours this summer, a forecast from the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests. This potential "surprise" weather event is linked to the return of the Pacific phenomenon El Niño.

While the connection between El Niño in the equatorial Pacific and weather in Central Asia might not be immediately obvious, the WMO warns of a dangerous cumulative effect expected in 2026. The planet's atmosphere and hydrosphere are already critically overheated due to human activities. When El Niño overlaps with this warming trend, the climate system could react with unprecedented force, leading to a sharp release of massive amounts of moisture rather than gradual changes.

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El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of planetary warming.

According to UN forecasts, Central Asia, along with the southern United States, is identified as a primary target for these abnormal heavy rainfall events. UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the urgency, stating, "El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of planetary warming." He called for an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, protection for vulnerable populations, and the development of robust early warning systems.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed the need for heightened preparedness. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will intensify droughts and heavy rainfall, as well as increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," she stated. Meteorologists estimate an 80 percent probability of El Niño developing in the coming summer months, with a over 90 percent chance of the anomaly persisting into winter.

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We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will intensify droughts and heavy rainfall, as well as increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.