How a push to disarm Hezbollah is deepening divisions in Lebanon

A U.S.-brokered deal aimed at fostering peace between Lebanon and Israel is instead intensifying long-standing divisions within Lebanon, sparking fears of political paralysis and even a return to civil war. The agreement envisions an Israeli troop withdrawal and a future peace accord, but critically links the withdrawal to the disarmament of Hezbollah, a condition that has enraged the Iran-backed militant group.

This linkage has ignited a war of words between Lebanon's Western-backed government and Hezbollah, with the group's supporters staging protests and blocking major roads. A Hezbollah lawmaker warned that the country could descend into civil war if the government attempts to enforce disarmament. These tensions evoke memories of Lebanon's devastating 1975-1990 civil war and more recent clashes in 2008, casting doubt on the feasibility of the U.S.-brokered deal.

The deal's prospects are further complicated by the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with a potential resumption of hostilities between the two powers increasing the risk of renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is scheduled to discuss the deal during an upcoming visit to the White House on July 21.

Lebanon's political arena has been split for over two decades between pro-Western and pro-Iran factions, with Hezbollah leading the latter. Both sides view the new agreement as having existential implications. The recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, triggered by a U.S.-Israel operation against Iran, saw Hezbollah enter the fray without government approval. Hezbollah sought to tie the end of its conflict with Israel to the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations, while the Lebanese government aimed to separate these tracks to minimize Iranian influence.

Initially, the pro-Hezbollah camp celebrated a ceasefire deal between Iran and the U.S. that included an end to the war in Lebanon, leading to a truce that significantly reduced fighting. However, the subsequent "framework agreement" announced by Israel and Lebanon on June 26, conditioning Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah's disarmament, shifted the dynamics. Despite this, Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, and hundreds of thousands are displaced, with their homes largely destroyed.

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The country would plunge into civil war if the government tries to force the group's disarmament.