How climate change and food insecurity could fuel conflicts

The global food system is under growing strain, and new research is mapping where climate-driven agricultural losses could increase the risk of conflict.

Severe droughts and extreme weather are damaging harvests in many regions. A developing El Niño event could worsen food shortages for millions next year, while wars and geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains carrying food and agricultural inputs.

The war in Ukraine has repeatedly shaken grain markets. The conflict involving Iran has also pushed up fuel and fertilizer prices through its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, increasing costs for farmers worldwide. Experts have long warned that when families can no longer afford food, competition over land, water and other resources can intensify. In fragile countries, those pressures can contribute to unrest, migration and armed conflict.

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The heaviest losses are in the tropical regions.

The Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index, developed by Hannes Mueller and colleagues, maps changes in agricultural productivity around the world. Mueller, a researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis and the Barcelona School of Economics, said the heaviest losses were in tropical regions. Cambodia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Nigeria, Paraguay and El Salvador are among the countries already feeling the effects of reduced agricultural output. He also warned that northern Africa deserves much greater attention, describing the situation shown on the index as “terrible” and “horrible.”

Nearly half of the world’s population could live within 25 years in areas where farms produce less food. But the research points to a more complicated pattern than scarcity alone. In some places, land that was previously marginal may become more productive and valuable, attracting investors and increasing competition over ownership and access. That means countries that benefit overall could still face new tensions. Sudan, for example, is projected to produce more food as the climate changes, although the supplied article ends before detailing the consequences.

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Northern Africa is another region we should pay much more attention to. If you look at the map, it just looks terrible. It really looks horrible.