How much do new apartments really cost? Average prices no longer matter

The Polish real estate market is no longer a unified entity, with sales and supply dynamics diverging sharply across major cities. While national average prices for new apartments saw a modest 0.4% increase to 16,071 PLN per square meter in May, this figure masks significant local variations.

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In some cities, demand remains strong, while in others, it is clearly weakening. This means that developers must look not at the general average, but at the specific local market, district, and customer profile.

In Warsaw and the Tricity area, sales volume surged by approximately 25% in May compared to April. Conversely, cities like Katowice and Lodz experienced substantial drops, with Katowice seeing sales fall by over 50%. This fragmentation forces developers to abandon broad market averages and focus on specific local conditions, neighborhoods, and buyer profiles.

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Demand has not disappeared, but it is no longer demand that will automatically absorb any new supply. Today, sales depend on precisely matching the product, price, and location to the buyers' capabilities.

"Demand has not disappeared, but it is no longer demand that will automatically absorb any new supply," stated Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice-president of Tabelaofert.pl. "Today, sales depend on precisely matching the product, price, and location to the buyers' capabilities."

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May data shows that the primary market must be analyzed locally today. The increase in supply in Poznan and the Tricity was mainly due to a large number of new apartment introductions, not a sudden halt in sales. At the same time, the decreases in the number of available apartments in Warsaw, Katowice, and Lodz show that we cannot talk about a single general trend. The common denominator, however, remains the growing competition for the customer.

The overall supply of new apartments across seven major markets rose to 69,200 units. This increase was driven by new developments in Poznan and the Tricity, where supply grew by nearly 6% and 4% respectively. However, Warsaw, Katowice, and Lodz saw their available housing stock decrease. Ewa Palus, chief analyst at Tabelaofert, noted that the primary driver for increased supply in Poznan and the Tricity was the introduction of new projects, not a slowdown in sales. The declining availability in other cities indicates a lack of a single overarching trend, but a common challenge remains the growing competition for buyers.

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Developers do not want to lower prices, and customers do not accept every price.