How Russia’s drone war against Ukraine has changed, and why Budanov expects attacks to continue after legislative elections

Kyiv is no longer facing the familiar pattern of massive Russian drone swarms arriving once or twice a week. Since Aug. 27, the attacks have come in almost uninterrupted waves, day and night, turning the Ukrainian capital and other cities into targets under constant pressure.

The shift has not necessarily brought a dramatic increase in the total number of drones. The more important change is the composition and timing of the attacks. Jet-powered drones, which are considerably harder to intercept, now make up about half of all launches, according to the figures examined by Kyiv Post.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported an average of about 188 drones launched each night between 6 p.m. and 8 a.m. from Aug. 27 to 31. That compares with nearly 160 per night during the same period in July. July figures ranged from 58 launches on July 21 to 496 on July 2. The Air Force has not provided clear figures for drones launched and intercepted during daytime hours, although warnings issued over the past week suggest that several dozen more may be launched each day.

The reported pace is placing pressure on activity across the country. Explosions have repeatedly sounded over Kyiv and other cities, while several major retail chains have increasingly become targets and business operations have been disrupted nationwide. The immediate positive sign for Ukraine is that interception rates remain high. The concern is that Russia may be able to sustain the campaign for an extended period.

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said Russia launched 8,653 drones in July. Kyiv Post calculated a lower total of 4,955 from the Air Force’s morning briefings. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov has warned that Moscow will maintain the current tempo at least until the State Duma elections in September.