ILO says jobs, livelihoods at risk from El Niño

The impending 2026-2027 El Niño weather phenomenon is poised to severely impact jobs, reduce incomes, and degrade working conditions throughout the Caribbean, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned.

The report highlights agriculture, fisheries, and tourism as the sectors most at risk. These industries are expected to face significant challenges due to anticipated drought, water scarcity, and intense heatwaves across the region. The ILO's policy brief, "El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean," details a potential chain of consequences, from climate disruption to employment instability.

Workers, particularly those in rural communities and informal employment, are identified as the most vulnerable. The phenomenon could lead to increased food insecurity, higher food and energy prices, and more severe heat stress for outdoor workers. The report also raises concerns about potential increases in forced labor migration and child labor in vulnerable households as livelihoods are threatened.

Fabio Bertranou, ILO deputy regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasized that the scale of El Niño's impact will depend on the region's preparedness. "The 2026–2027 El Niño poses a major challenge for employment and decent work in Latin America and the Caribbean," he stated, stressing the need for robust labor market institutions, social protection systems, and social dialogue.

While El Niño's effects will vary, Caribbean nations are specifically bracing for prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves. The ILO points to the region's high levels of informal employment, where many workers lack access to social safety nets, making them exceptionally susceptible to climate-related shocks. The organization advocates for proactive measures, including strengthening social protection, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, enhancing occupational safety, and expanding early warning systems to cushion the blow.

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The 2026–2027 El Niño poses a major challenge for employment and decent work in Latin America and the Caribbean. The scale of its impacts will depend on countries’ ability to anticipate them through strong labour market institutions, social protection systems and social dialogue that protect those who are most vulnerable.