India’s monsoon weakens, IMD predicts below-normal rain for next two weeks

New Delhi, India – India's crucial monsoon season is showing signs of weakening, prompting concerns over agricultural output. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall across the country for at least the next two weeks, extending through September 2.

This forecast adds to existing worries about the upcoming winter crop, which has recently been sown. The national rainfall deficit already stands at 14% below the long-period average. The IMD attributes the subdued conditions partly to the monsoon trough remaining anchored near the Himalayan foothills, rather than shifting southward into central India where it typically delivers the most significant rainfall during August.

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This will reduce rainfall over the rest of the country as it will be centred only around the Himalayan belt and northeast India.

Private forecaster Skymet Weather has further revised its seasonal forecast, now anticipating monsoon rainfall at only 85% of the long-period average, with a 70% probability of drought. Skymet also warned of inequitable rainfall distribution and the deepening deficit in September, influenced by a strengthening El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole.

While heavy rainfall is expected in the Himalayan belt and parts of northeast and east India, subdued conditions are predicted for Peninsular India. A low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal, potentially bringing heavy rain to Odisha and Chhattisgarh, but the overall national picture remains one of concern for water availability.

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Skymet foresees a 70% chance of drought and expects the seasonal rainfall to be 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA).