Indonesia Projects Slight Rice Production Dip Amid Ample Surplus

Indonesia's National Food Agency (Bapanas) anticipates a potential decrease in rice production for the current year. Head of Bapanas, Amran Sulaiman, stated that while last year saw a surplus of 4 million tons, this year's production might decline by approximately 0.2 percent, equating to about 80,000 tons. However, he stressed that this projected reduction should not be compared to last year's significant production increase and that a surplus of around 4 million tons is still expected.

This projection is based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), which forecasts a drop of 0.08 million tons in rice production between January and July 2026 compared to the same period last year. As of June 23, Bapanas reported a total rice stock of 5.17 million tons in Bulog warehouses. This includes 3.23 million tons procured domestically since the beginning of 2026 and a carry-over of 3.24 million tons from the end of 2025, all sourced from domestic production.

However, concerns about the quality and management of rice stocks have surfaced. Siti Hediati Hariyadi, also known as Titiek Soeharto and Chair of Commission IV of the House of Representatives, urged Minister Amran not to store rice older than six months in Bulog warehouses. During a working meeting on June 10, she noted that out of 1.5 million tons of older rice, a significant portion was over a year old, based on her visit to a Bulog warehouse in Madura, East Java. Titiek Soeharto also called for expedited distribution of rice from Bulog to prevent undesirable outcomes.