Intense Rains Expected in Northern Peru From November Due to El Niño, Senamhi Warns

Northern Peru faces a high likelihood of intense rainfall beginning in November 2026, extending into the summer of 2027, according to the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi). This forecast is associated with the potential development of the El Niño phenomenon.

Jorge Luis Carranza Valle, Senamhi's director in Piura, cited international reports, particularly from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), showing a sustained increase in the probability of heavy precipitation in the northern Peruvian and Ecuadorian coastal zone. "The probabilities of this phenomenon were previously 10% and 20%, but today we have a scenario of 63%," Carranza stated.

NOAA projects the rainy season to start in November 2026 and continue until early 2027. Senamhi anticipates rainfall accumulations of 70 to 80 millimeters, surpassing typical summer levels in regions like Piura. The event could bring elevated temperatures, waterlogging, floods, and heightened vulnerability to both urban and rural areas.

Piura is identified as particularly vulnerable, especially after the severe damage from the 2017 coastal El Niño. Areas like Catacaos and Bajo Piura are at high risk of flooding and river overflows. Senamhi is coordinating with authorities and media to disseminate alerts and promote preventive actions, urging local and regional officials to implement measures to mitigate potential damage.

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The probabilities of this phenomenon were previously 10% and 20%, but today we have a scenario of 63%.