Iran Loses Strait of Hormuz Leverage as Gulf States Turn to Alternative Routes

Iran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage is weakening as shipping resumes and the United States increases military and economic pressure, according to former senior US official Brett McGurk.

In an analysis cited by Arab Times, McGurk said oil flows through the strait had recovered to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war level. That recovery has reduced Tehran’s ability to disrupt a vital commercial route and use it as a bargaining tool.

McGurk said Washington had reimposed a military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions targeting the country’s oil trade. US forces have also worked to clear shipping lanes and protect commercial vessels using the waterway.

The pressure is spreading through Iran’s economy. McGurk cited International Monetary Fund projections that the economy could shrink by more than 5% this year, while inflation approaches 70%. He also pointed to a sharply weaker rial, higher prices for essential goods and an Iranian Labor Ministry estimate that more than one million jobs were lost during the first three months of the war.

Iran still has options to escalate, McGurk wrote, including renewed attacks on commercial shipping, strikes against energy infrastructure in neighboring countries or using the Houthis to threaten Red Sea commerce. He said those measures had so far failed to make Washington retreat, but cautioned that the outcome remains uncertain. “It’s too early to call,” he wrote, saying Iran had expected to withstand US pressure for longer.

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It’s too early to call