Iran's Hardliners Threaten to Derail Regime's Victory Lap Over US Deal

A powerful faction within Iran is actively working to disrupt the regime's public celebration of a recent agreement with the United States. Mahmoud Nabavian, vice chairman of the parliament's National Security Commission, publicly denounced the deal, claiming it would turn Iran into a "colony of the United States" and even allow Israel access to the Strait of Hormuz.

Nabavian's speech, broadcast nationwide, fueled a backlash, with supporters launching a "we will not accept" campaign against what they perceive as a humiliating capitulation. Despite Iranian officials and state media hailing the pact as a triumph, significant internal opposition exists, particularly from influential hardline groups like the Jebhe-ye Paydari, to which Nabavian is closely aligned.

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the agreement would turn the Islamic Republic into a “colony of the United States” and open the Strait of Hormuz even to Israel.

This internal dissent presents a challenge for the regime, which is trying to consolidate power after a period of demonstrations and crises. Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead at Bloomberg Economics, noted that the recent conflict provided the government with a renewed hold on power. However, she cautioned that the government must still address the myriad of domestic problems that predated the war.

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a government weakened by demonstrations of discontent and crisis to regain their hold on power.

Vali Nasr, author of "Iran's Grand Strategy," explained that the Supreme Leader and his inner circle must now manage opposition from within their own ranks. He emphasized that controlling hardline forces, which they previously supported, is crucial for the agreement's success. These hardliners view any deal with the U.S. as a capitulation and appeasing them is seen as more critical than addressing anti-regime sentiment.

In an apparent effort to distance himself from potential fallout, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly authorized the deal while stressing that its architects bore responsibility. This move suggests an awareness of the internal political complexities and the potential for the agreement to unravel due to domestic opposition.

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For this agreement to work, (Supreme Leader) Mojtaba (Khamenei) and the (Revolutionary Guards) have to control the very forces that they helped create.