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🇳🇴 Norway /Conflict & Security

Iran war drags on: “Not surprised at all”

From Aftenposten · () Norwegian

Translated from Norwegian and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Ongoing story
  • The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has lasted more than six months, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing up energy prices.
  • Experts say the war could continue for months or even through Donald Trump’s presidency, with implications for inflation, U.S. military capacity and the midterm elections.
  • Analysts also warn that a prolonged conflict could increase pressure on Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran has lasted more than six months, despite the expectation that it would end within weeks. Oil and gas prices have begun rising again, while U.S. diesel prices this week passed their previous record from 2022.

Attempts to resolve the conflict have so far failed. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have raised prices for oil, gas, fuel and electricity. Economists warn that a continuing war could have a lasting effect on global inflation.

Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine was supposed to last ten days, but dragged on for four years. We simply do not know how long the Iran war will last.

· Peter Edward John GoodThe University of Bergen associate professor compared the conflict with the war in Ukraine while discussing how long it might continue.

The conflict may also affect the U.S. midterm elections and the country’s military capacity, experts say. Peter Edward John Good, an associate professor of Arabic and Middle Eastern history at the University of Bergen, said the confrontation had taken on the character of a cold war, involving a U.S. blockade of the strait, Iranian efforts to restrict shipping and repeated attacks between the parties.

It can still take months before they reach some kind of peace agreement. It may also drag on throughout Trump’s presidency and be passed on, leaving it to a successor to find a solution.

· Peter Edward John GoodGood outlined possible timelines for ending the conflict.

Good said a peace agreement could still take months. He also raised the possibility that the conflict could continue throughout Trump’s presidency and leave the task of finding a solution to his successor. “Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine was supposed to last ten days, but dragged on for four years. We simply do not know how long the Iran war will last,” he said.

Dag Henrik Tuastad, a professor at the University of Oslo, said the conflict could persist without either regime change or a peace agreement. He warned that this could carry the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Tor Ivar Strømmen of the Norwegian Naval Academy said he was not surprised the war was continuing. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had extended the deployment of personnel in the Middle East into 2027.

One can imagine a prolonged conflict in which there is neither regime change nor a peace agreement.

· Dag Henrik TuastadThe University of Oslo professor described a possible long-term outcome.
About this summary

Originally published by Aftenposten in Norwegian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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