Israel 'baited' Turkey with Abu al-Duhur airbase 'pre-election' strike, US Envoy Tom Barrack says

US Special Envoy to Syria and Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack has proposed a theory that Israel's recent strike on the Abu al-Duhur military base in Syria may have been a calculated move to provoke Turkey, possibly tied to Israeli domestic politics ahead of elections.

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the Israelis were baiting the Turks

Barrack suggested in an X/Twitter interview that Israel might have been "baiting the Turks," drawing a parallel to a previous incident where Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet. He described such actions near borders without warning as a "very dangerous game." The envoy further speculated that the strike could have been a "very aggressive but maybe a well-received pre-election concept" for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose constituency has specific expectations.

Barrack also noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might be considering early elections and must appeal to voters sensitive to developments in Gaza. This domestic political context, he argued, can influence the rhetoric of regional leaders.

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very aggressive but maybe a well-received pre-election concept

A second theory presented by Barrack posits that Israel acted on intelligence suggesting Turkish military personnel or assets were present at the Syrian base. According to Barrack, Israel conveyed this concern to the US about six days prior to the strike. However, after reviewing the intelligence, US officials reportedly concluded that "No, that's not happening."

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We have some intelligence that there might be Turkish movement into this site, which we would be very concerned about.

The comments emerged amid reports of diplomatic contacts preceding the strike, including a lengthy backchannel conversation between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and the Mossad chief. Despite these discussions, Israeli Air Force aircraft proceeded to strike the base's runways.

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No, that's not happening.