Israel must draw red lines on Turkey's expansion before it reaches its borders

Israel must establish clear boundaries in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean to prevent Turkish military encroachment on its borders, a senior Israeli intelligence official warned this week. The official's concerns echo a 2025 Nagel Commission report, which cautioned about Turkey's drive toward an Islamist-jihadist regional order with Ottoman-era ambitions. The report warned of a potential direct confrontation with Ankara and its Syrian proxies.

The threat from Syria could become more dangerous than the Iranian threat, the commission's report stated. This assessment appears to underpin recent Israeli airstrikes on a Syrian airbase near Idlib. The strike targeted a radar and air defense system reportedly being set up by Turkey, intended to disrupt Israeli air force operations in the north. The action served as a stark signal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Syrian associate, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to cease their activities.

Erdogan is described as a devout antisemite who believes in classic antisemitic myths and openly seeks to lead a pan-Islamic coalition against Israel, all while maintaining NATO membership. He is reportedly anchoring a Sunni alliance with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Qatar, which has anti-American and anti-Israeli undertones. Erdogan has even drafted a model constitution for an Islamic confederation intended to replace NATO.

Despite past interventions, such as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly asking Erdogan not to join Iran's war against Israel, Turkey continues to align with Russia against the West. This includes supporting Iran's economy and war efforts, and hosting Hamas military headquarters. Simultaneously, Erdogan seeks European aid and advanced military equipment from the U.S., while his close ties with Russia, China, and Iran, along with his military occupations and diplomatic campaigns, have drawn little public comment from the Trump administration.

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The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat.