Israel's election arithmetic grows more complicated as projections shift

Israel's election calculations have become even more tangled after a new poll reduced the projected strength of the opposition and gave a newly formed party a potentially decisive role.

The poll by Israel's public broadcaster KAN projects former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party to lead the race with 23 seats. Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to win 20 seats and remains the second-largest party, despite continuing to weaken in the projections.

Netanyahu's existing bloc of far-right and Haredi parties is projected to reach 52 seats with support from Amcha Yisrael, led by Ofer Winter, which is expected to win four seats. That remains below the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-member Knesset.

The opposition bloc has also lost ground in the latest figures. KAN previously projected it would win 55 seats, but the new poll puts it at 51. The change is linked to a new party founded by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which is projected to cross the electoral threshold and enter the Knesset with four seats.

The Arab parties are projected to win 13 seats in total, including seven for the Joint Arab List and six for Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas. The opposition could reach 61 seats if it brings Hendel and Zelekha's party and Ra'am into its camp. Netanyahu's bloc, meanwhile, would need to persuade parties from the opposing side to switch camps, even if it secured the new party's support.