Israel shifts right, but Netanyahu's coalition is losing ground: Here's why - analysis

The Israeli public has moved to the right following the recent war, yet the coalition parties representing this political stance are paradoxically losing ground. This creates a significant disconnect, leaving an estimated 15 to 25 mandates worth of right-wing voters searching for a political home as the election campaign officially begins.

Assessments within party headquarters reveal a consistent picture: while public sentiment has hardened on issues of security, tradition, and territory, the existing right-wing parties, Likud, the Religious Zionist Party, and Otzma Yehudit, are failing to capture this sentiment. This dissonance is a major concern for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders, while offering a glimmer of hope to opposition parties.

The prevailing analysis suggests that if the current situation holds, these undecided right-wing votes will likely be divided. Some voters may return to their original parties, while others might migrate to parties on the political left that have adopted more right-wing rhetoric. This fluidity means that current polls offer little reliable insight, as a substantial portion of the electorate remains uncertain, leading to a chaotic and potentially misleading electoral landscape.

The public's rightward shift is evident in three key areas: a greater emphasis on tradition and Judaism, a hard-line security outlook with zero tolerance for perceived Arab threats, and strong support for settlements in Judea and Samaria, coupled with opposition to relinquishing territory. While pre-war Knesset members supporting these values numbered around 68, current estimates suggest this support should translate to over 70, possibly 75, mandates. However, polls indicate these parties are collectively receiving fewer mandates, highlighting the gap between public opinion and party support.