It’s a straight fight between Jackson and AMBO, by Rotimi Fasan

The upcoming August 15 governorship election in Osun State is shaping up to be a direct confrontation between the incumbent governor, Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke, and Asiwaju Bola Munirudeen Oyebamiji, known as AMBO. AMBO, a former finance commissioner, is aligned with ex-governor Gboyega Oyetola, who faced challenges during his tenure under Rauf Aregbesola.

The political landscape is further complicated by Aregbesola's backing of Najeem Salam, the ADC candidate. While Salam is not considered a serious contender, Aregbesola's support appears aimed at maintaining his party standing. Notably, Aregbesola maintains a cordial relationship with Governor Adeleke, suggesting he might not oppose Adeleke's re-election. His primary political adversary is Oyetola, who succeeded him and reversed some of his policies, and is also a nephew of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The election is not expected to be a simple victory for Governor Adeleke. Tensions are already high, evidenced by an incident at Okuku in Odo-Otin LGA where armed individuals raided an INEC PVC distribution center, stealing voter registration packs and frightening residents. The state government declared a work-free day for citizens to collect their PVCs, possibly to mitigate the impact of such disruptions.

Historically, areas like Ile-Ife and Ikire have been prone to political violence. The fatal clash in Ikire in February 2025 and the seizure of local government funds underscore the intense power struggles preceding the August election. Despite not being spectacular, Governor Adeleke's performance has resonated with a significant portion of Osun's population.