It was supposed to last five weeks. Six months on, Trump is losing his war with Iran

When Donald Trump launched the war with Iran in late February, he said the fighting could last four to five weeks. Six months later, little suggests the conflict is near its end. The president’s ability to shape its course appears seriously limited, turning the war he cannot finish into one of the biggest challenges of his second term.

“We are now in a distinctly weaker position, and I do not know whether it can still be rebuilt,” Suzanne Maloney, a Brookings Institution expert on U.S.-Iranian relations, told The Washington Post. She said the war formed part of a broader process under the administration that weakened the credibility and ability of the United States to act in the Middle East and in confrontations with other adversaries around the world.

Trump has sought to argue that Iran is paying a high price. He said last week that a U.S. naval blockade and tightening sanctions were placing growing pressure on the Iranian economy, while downplaying the war’s effect on oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Before Feb. 28, more than one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies passed through the waterway. More than 100 ships crossed it on an average day before the war. Now, only several to a dozen make the passage. Oil deliveries remain restricted and prices remain well above prewar levels.

The Trump administration presented the war as a way to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat and reduce the danger Tehran posed to the region. Analysts say the results fall far short. It is unclear how much damage Iran’s nuclear program suffered, while Tehran remains capable of destabilizing a region that has become less secure. Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S.-aligned Arab Gulf states have struck American military sites and diplomatic facilities and disrupted air travel. Attacks on shipping have increased insurance and transport costs, disrupted supply chains and deepened economic uncertainty across the Gulf.

Iran has suffered heavy losses, but its regime remains firmly in power and can still attack U.S. bases and American allies. The war has caused thousands of casualties, worsened Iran’s economic crisis and contributed to higher inflation. It has also pushed domestic political divisions into the background and intensified repression of opponents. The costs are rising for Washington too: after six months, the conflict has depleted Pentagon weapons stocks, and U.S. forces have lost drones and aircraft.

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We are now in a distinctly weaker position, and I do not know whether it can still be rebuilt.