Japan's South China Sea military potential may exceed U.S., analyst warns

A leading Chinese maritime analyst has expressed significant concern over Japan's expanding military activities in the South China Sea, suggesting its potential for destruction could eventually exceed that of the United States. Wu Shicun, founding president of China's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, stated that "unilateral infringements" in the contested waters are becoming normalized.

Speaking at a security roundtable in Hong Kong, Wu highlighted a sharp increase in military deployments, joint exercises, and maritime patrols by nations outside the region. He specifically pointed to Japan's unprecedented, full-scale participation in the annual Balikatan joint military exercises with the U.S. and the Philippines as a key driver of China's anxiety.

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unilateral infringements in the disputed waters were becoming “normalised”.

During this year's Balikatan drills, over 1,400 Japanese personnel were deployed, accompanied by three major warships and transport aircraft. In a notable display of capability, Japanese forces fired a Type 88 surface-to-ship missile system using live rounds at a decommissioned Philippine Navy vessel. This marked the first time Japan had employed such weaponry outside its territory since the end of World War II.

Wu's assessment underscores a growing apprehension within China regarding Japan's evolving military posture. The analyst's warning suggests that Japan's increased assertiveness and demonstrated military capacity in the strategically vital South China Sea are viewed as a significant, potentially escalating, regional security development.

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This is the first time that Japan has shown off its military muscle since the end of World War II.