John FitzGerald: Little evidence that Andy Burnham’s plan to devolve power to the regions will work

Prime Minister Andy Burnham's ambitious plan to devolve power to cities and regions across the UK, inspired by his experience as mayor of Greater Manchester, faces skepticism regarding its potential to boost national productivity. Burnham hopes that empowering local areas will allow them to emulate Manchester's economic success over the past decade.

Manchester has indeed seen a notable increase in its economic output per head, rising from 50% of London's level in 2013 to 53% in 2023. However, this localized success has not translated into significant benefits for the broader North West region of England. Productivity growth in the wider region, home to 7.7 million people, has only slightly outpaced the UK average, and it continues to fall further behind London.

This limited spillover effect from Manchester raises questions about whether creating more successful cities under a new devolved system would truly transform the wider UK economy. Furthermore, the track record of devolution in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, which already possess regional assemblies, does not provide strong evidence that such arrangements are a guaranteed path to economic revitalization. While Scotland and Wales have seen productivity growth lag behind the UK average, Northern Ireland has shown faster growth, potentially benefiting from remaining in the EU's single market for goods post-Brexit.

The article also touches upon the complexities of governance within devolved regions. While Scotland has managed its economy and tax policies, Northern Ireland's Stormont administration has faced issues with maladministration and exceeding spending limits, despite receiving more generous funding from London than English regions. The effectiveness of Burnham's plan hinges not only on the devolution of powers but also on robust governance structures for these newly empowered regions.