KDI: 90% of jobs could see 90% of tasks automated by AI by 2030

South Korea's leading state-run economic think tank, the Korea Development Institute (KDI), has issued a stark projection: by 2030, up to 90% of existing jobs could have 90% of their tasks technologically automated by artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. This outlook underscores the profound and rapid transformation anticipated in the nation's labor market.

The KDI's forecast was presented at a forum focused on the future of work and coexistence with AI. Han Yo-seop, a KDI research fellow, highlighted that discussions worldwide increasingly focus on AI's potential to reduce youth employment. He stressed that the actual impact on employment will largely depend on how quickly companies adopt AI (AX transition) and their capacity to create entirely new job roles.

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In this situation, net job creation is only possible if new labor demand can be generated rapidly.

"In this situation, net job creation is only possible if new labor demand can be generated rapidly," Han stated. He recommended enhancing organizational flexibility to facilitate transitions into new roles and boosting the startup ecosystem to foster the creation of new jobs and occupations. This perspective aligns with global concerns, as reports from organizations like the International Labour Organization (ILO) and McKinsey have also warned of significant AI-driven job displacement.

The potential for AI to exacerbate inequality was also a key theme. Jang Ji-yeon, a senior researcher at the Korea Labor Institute, pointed out the "asymmetrical situation" where productivity gains might increase the overall economic pie, but also deepen polarization. She suggested exploring diverse revenue streams, such as taxing AI's excess profits through sovereign wealth fund mechanisms, to fund necessary social adjustments. Furthermore, there were calls to involve youth not just as nominal advisors but as decision-makers in addressing societal issues beyond the scope of individual companies, and to expand government support beyond traditional educational institutions to include online and on-the-job training that keeps pace with rapidly evolving technologies.

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This is an asymmetrical situation where the pie grows due to productivity gains, but polarization also deepens.