Lebanon's 'pilot zones' test international trust amid Israel negotiations

Lebanon is embarking on a critical test of international confidence with the launch of "pilot zones" in its southern region. This initiative represents the first practical step in a mechanism being developed alongside US-sponsored negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, with the outcome expected to shape the model's potential expansion to other areas.

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A gradual and parallel process involving the Israeli withdrawal, state deployment, bringing weapons under state control and reconstruction is the most realistic way to implement the commitments and prevent any party from exploiting the issue.

The selection of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, Froun, and Srifa as the initial pilot zones appears to be strategic, stemming from understandings reached prior to a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. The goal is to establish a scalable model that can be gradually implemented. This first phase will rigorously assess not only military deployment but also the broader implementation process before advancing to subsequent stages.

MP Ibrahim Mneimneh highlighted that the pilot zone plan is designed to counter doubts about the Lebanese state's capacity to assert its authority. He described a gradual, parallel process involving Israeli withdrawal, state deployment, bringing weapons under state control, and reconstruction as the most realistic approach. This method, he believes, will prevent any party from exploiting the situation.

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Prolonged deadlines could derail the entire idea and allow Hezbollah to cast doubt on the intentions behind the process and its effectiveness.

Mneimneh identified a lack of confidence in the state as the primary obstacle, noting that the complexities surrounding Hezbollah's weapons could be used to derail the process. He advocated for a phased transition, where Israel withdraws from designated areas, followed by the Lebanese state establishing security authority and exclusive control over weapons, coupled with reconstruction efforts. He warned that open-ended deadlines could be interpreted as entrenching the occupation and urged a swift withdrawal supported by international aid to bolster the state and army. While acknowledging that Hezbollah's objections were expected, Mneimneh noted some recent statements seemed less confrontational, suggesting a potential degree of acceptance of the new reality, though he cautioned it was too early to draw firm conclusions.

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Any open-ended deadlines will be interpreted as entrenching the occupation.