LOCAL ELECTIONS 2026: ANC and DA in Dead Heat Across Key Metros as MK Dominates eThekwini

South Africa’s 2026 local elections are shaping up as a close contest between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance in several major metros, while Jacob Zuma’s MK Party dominates in eThekwini, according to the latest Ipsos Pulse of the People poll.

The ANC holds a narrow lead in Johannesburg, with 31% support compared with 27% for the DA. In Tshwane, however, the DA is ahead on 31% against the ANC’s 22%, putting the political capital within reach of a change in control. The ANC and DA are also closely matched in Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City.

The national figures put the ANC at 31%, the DA at 25%, MK at 14%, the EFF at 11% and ActionSA at 6%. The IFP follows at 3%, while the Patriotic Alliance has 2%. Both the DA and PA argue that Ipsos underestimates their support. A separate, smaller Social Research Foundation phone poll of urban residents found the DA polling higher in Johannesburg.

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Party contestation over the next two months in almost every province will be fierce.

In eThekwini, MK is projected to win decisively, with 55% of surveyed voters saying they would support the party. The poll, based on 3,500 in-home interviews, shows MK’s strength concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal rather than spread nationally. ActionSA is performing strongly in Gauteng, the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal, and the PA in the Western Cape.

Ipsos public affairs director Mari Harris said the next two months would bring fierce competition. She said parties could still affect the outcome by mobilizing voters for the 4 November election, while warning that many registered voters may not participate. The poll also indicates that voting intentions are rising, particularly in metropolitan areas.

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The proportion of registered voters saying that they will not vote in the LGEs is extremely relevant to all would-be councillors.