South Africa’s 2026 Local Elections: ANC and DA Run Neck and Neck in Key Metros as MK Leads eThekwini

South Africa’s political map is tightening in the cities. A new Ipsos Pulse of the People poll places the ANC and Democratic Alliance in a near dead heat across four major metros, while the MK Party dominates eThekwini with 55% of respondents saying they would vote for it.

The ANC holds a narrow lead in Johannesburg, at 31% compared with 27% for the DA. Tshwane, however, is tilting toward the DA, which records 31% against the ANC’s 22%. The political capital could turn blue, a possibility also reflected in internal DA polling. The four metros where the two parties remain closely matched are Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City.

The poll, based on 3,500 in-home interviews, also captures the ANC’s continuing urban decline. Its strongest results come from rural strongholds, including Limpopo at 58% and the Eastern Cape at 56%. The DA remains dominant in the Western Cape and is now polling ahead of the ANC in the Free State, a province described as suffering from poor service delivery.

Other parties show strong regional patterns. MK, the party of former president Jacob Zuma, is powerful in KwaZulu-Natal but has little support elsewhere. The EFF is gaining ground in Mpumalanga, ActionSA is performing strongly in Gauteng, the IFP is concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal, and the Patriotic Alliance is a factor in the Western Cape. Nationally, the ANC leads with 31%, followed by the DA at 25%, MK at 14%, the EFF at 11% and ActionSA at 6%.

“Party contestation over the next two months in almost every province will be fierce,” said Ipsos public affairs director and political analyst Mari Harris. She said parties still had time to influence the result by bringing their supporters to the polls. Turnout intentions are rising, particularly in metro areas, but Harris warned that the share of registered voters who say they will not vote remains important for every prospective councillor.

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Party contestation over the next two months in almost every province will be fierce.