Lula fails to convince voters on crime fight, poll shows

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces a significant challenge in convincing voters of his administration's effectiveness against organized crime, according to a recent BTG/Nexus poll. The survey suggests that in a hypothetical fourth term, Lula would not be seen as more capable of combating organized crime than his rival, Flávio Bolsonaro.

The poll, which assessed the candidates' ability to address public demands, found Bolsonaro leading Lula on three key public security issues: combating organized crime (53% to 43%), improving public safety (53% to 38%), and fighting corruption (44% to 37%). While Lula holds advantages in areas such as the economy, education, and health, his perceived weakness on security matters is consistent across all regions of Brazil, including the traditionally pro-Lula Northeast.

Marcelo Tokarski, CEO of Nexus, noted that Bolsonaro's strong showing on security issues indicates a persistent public perception associating the opposition bloc with crime suppression strategies. This perception appears to outweigh partisan divisions.

The survey interviewed 2,003 people by phone between July 10-12, 2026, with a margin of error of two percentage points. In a head-to-head presidential race, the poll showed Lula with 47% of voter intentions compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 44%. Lula also led against other potential rivals, Romeu Zema and Renan Santos, though the security issue remained a point of concern.

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Flávio Bolsonaro's leadership on the security agenda points to the fact that the opposition bloc's association with crime suppression strategies remains consolidated in public opinion and overrides political-party divisions.