Lula leads Bolsonaro by five points in potential presidential runoff, poll shows

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a five-point lead over his main rival, far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, in a hypothetical second-round presidential election, according to a poll released Friday. The Datafolha survey indicates Lula would secure 48% of voter intention in a runoff, against Bolsonaro's 43%. This scenario has remained stable since June, despite new controversies impacting the senator's campaign. In a first-round scenario, Lula garners 40% of support, with the far-right contender at 32%. Other candidates are projected to poll below 4%. Ronaldo Caiado, former governor of Goiás, is in third place with 4%, followed by Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, and businessman Renan Santos, both at 3%. These figures are within the poll's margin of error. Regarding voter rejection, 48% of respondents stated they would "absolutely not" vote for Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son, while 46% expressed the same position regarding the progressive leader seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. The poll, conducted between July 22-23 among 2,004 voters across 139 municipalities, has a margin of error of two percentage points. The stable poll results come despite recent campaign crises for Flávio Bolsonaro, including a video from his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, accusing him of mistreatment. This controversy appears to have particularly affected his support among women, who represent 52% of the sample, with Lula leading 50% to 40% in a potential runoff among this demographic. Furthermore, the senator's past discussions and connections with Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of Banco Master and currently imprisoned for alleged involvement in Brazil's largest financial fraud, continue to weigh on his candidacy.