Lula leads Bolsonaro in hypothetical runoff, poll shows demographic divides

President Lula holds a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round presidential election, according to a new Datafolha poll. The survey shows Lula with 47% of voter intentions compared to Bolsonaro's 43%. This represents a slight shift from July, when Lula led 48% to 43%.

The poll reveals significant demographic divides in voter preference. Lula garners stronger support among women, Black voters, Catholics, and individuals with family incomes up to two minimum wages. In contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro leads among evangelical voters and those in higher income brackets.

Specifically, among women, Lula has 51% support versus Bolsonaro's 38%. Among men, the race is in a technical tie, with Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 43%. Lula also performs better among Black voters, securing 55% compared to Bolsonaro's 37%. However, Bolsonaro leads among white voters, with 47% to Lula's 41%.

Income also plays a key role. Lula leads with 55% among those earning up to two minimum wages, while Bolsonaro leads significantly among higher earners. In the group earning more than five minimum wages, Bolsonaro has 54% support, compared to Lula's 39%.

The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,058 voters aged 16 and over on August 18-19, 2026. It has a margin of error of two percentage points for the overall sample. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and was commissioned by Folha and TV Globo.