Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in Second-Round Presidential Election Poll

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round presidential election scenario, according to a new Quaest poll. The survey indicates Lula would secure 43% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 40%. This represents a narrow, technical tie within the poll's margin of error. In a simulated first-round contest, Lula garners 38% support, while Bolsonaro trails with 31%. The poll was conducted from August 10-13, capturing voter intentions just before the official campaign launch on August 16. The deadline for candidate registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is August 15. Compared to a previous poll on August 5, Lula's second-round support slightly decreased from 44% to 43%, while Bolsonaro's increased from 39% to 40%. The first-round scenario remained largely stable. The survey interviewed 2,004 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. It is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-06773/2026. Other tested candidates include Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, both polling at 4% in the first round, followed by Romeu Zema and Augusto Cury at 2%. Undecided voters constitute 10% of respondents, with 8% indicating they would vote blank, null, or not vote at all.