Lula Regains Lead Over Bolsonaro in Brazilian Presidential Race Polls

Brazil's presidential race has shifted, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva now holding a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro just three months before the October 4th elections. While recent months saw polls indicating a technical tie in a potential second-round vote, the latest surveys show Lula, the incumbent president seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, back in front.

The AtlasIntel poll released Thursday shows Lula with 48.8% of voter intention compared to Bolsonaro's 42.3% in a hypothetical second round. This contrasts with earlier polls that had them virtually tied. Lula has also widened his lead in the first round, with other candidates garnering minimal support.

This change in electoral dynamics appears linked to several incidents that have weakened Bolsonaro's campaign and fractured the conservative bloc. One significant event was the revelation that Bolsonaro sought financing from Banco Master, controlled by banker Daniel Vorcaro, for a film about his father's political career. Vorcaro is currently imprisoned and under investigation for a major alleged banking fraud, creating a new vulnerability for Bolsonaro's campaign.

Further complicating matters, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro publicly stated she does not endorse her stepson's presidential bid, citing alleged humiliation and belittlement. This has reportedly caused a division within the Liberal Party (PL), with factions aligning either with Flávio Bolsonaro or Michelle, who holds considerable influence among female and evangelical voters. The AtlasIntel poll indicated that 64.1% of respondents believe the crisis between Flávio and Michelle has weakened his candidacy. The senator also faced criticism for delaying his disavowal of comments made by right-wing commentator Paulo Figueiredo, who suggested women "don't know how to vote."