Meloni Government’s Longevity Record Brings Pressure to Regroup Before Wear Sets In

Giorgia Meloni’s government is marking a longevity record that few thought possible in 2022, while the celebration itself exposes the coalition’s growing strain. The government’s supporters present its stability, alongside orderly public finances, as a political achievement. The opposition, by contrast, describes the right’s four years in office as the beginning of its end.

Those competing narratives will dominate the coming election campaign, with rhetoric expected to become increasingly forceful. Yet the Bari celebration arrives at a moment of confusion for the governing coalition. Antonio Tajani of Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini of the League will join by video rather than attend in person. Their absence makes the gathering look more like a party event than a coalition event, despite the presence of Maurizio Lupi of Noi Moderati. It also turns the occasion into an especially clear tribute to Meloni.

Both absent allies are dealing with difficult transitions. Berlusconi’s former political heirs face internal problems, while the family that controls Forza Italia’s finances is calling for a change of direction that sounds like criticism of Tajani. Tensions also persist from Calabria northward. Salvini faces a deeper challenge from the League’s “party of the North,” a force worried that it has lost its historic purpose. It is placing responsibility for the party’s declining vote share on its leader, although Roberto Vannacci’s arrival accelerated the crisis rather than causing it.

Meloni may be watching these convulsions from outside, but she cannot ignore them. If her majority begins to fracture, her chances of winning in 2027 become more complicated. She must therefore assess the coming months coolly: they could become a painful period to shorten by bringing elections forward, or an opportunity to highlight the government’s record and renew its momentum.

Vannacci is one of the uncertainties she must address. Containing his influence will require a change of strategy. A controversial electoral reform awaiting parliamentary approval could become the decisive test. Opposition leader Elly Schlein has portrayed Meloni as “closed in the palace,” even as the Democratic Party struggles with its own program and choice of candidate for the premiership. The article also points to alleged Russian interference as a concern affecting both political camps, while claims of an eventual foreign-policy agreement remain, for now, an act of faith.

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closed in the palace