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Meteorologist warns of 'many evacuated' as dangerous El Niño approaches
🇺🇾 Uruguay /Disasters & Emergencies

Meteorologist warns of 'many evacuated' as dangerous El Niño approaches

From El País · () Spanish

Translated from Spanish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Meteorologists warn of a stronger-than-usual El Niño phenomenon approaching.
  • This could lead to heavy rainfall and potential flooding in Uruguay and surrounding regions.
  • Meteorologist Guillermo Ramis predicts significant numbers of displaced people, particularly in August.

Meteorologists are issuing strong warnings about an approaching El Niño phenomenon that is expected to be more powerful than usual. Evidence, including elevated water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, suggests it could be classified as a "super El Niño," a rare and intense category.

many, many displaced people

— Guillermo RamisMeteorologist Guillermo Ramis's prediction regarding the impact of the approaching El Niño phenomenon on Uruguay.

For Uruguay and neighboring areas like southern Brazil, a strong El Niño typically means periods of heavy rainfall, significantly increasing the likelihood of widespread flooding. Meteorologist Guillermo Ramis specifically highlighted the potential for "many, many displaced people" due to the anticipated rains.

Ramis explained the difference between "possible" and "probable" in climatology, noting that his forecast carries an "80% probability." He anticipates that the most challenging months for Uruguay will be August and December, with the potential for up to 30,000 people displaced by the end of August. The departments of Artigas, Salto, Paysandú, and Río Negro are particularly vulnerable to rising waters from the Uruguay River, while other regions could face flooding from rains within the country.

In climatology, two words are used that in common language are used in reverse: possible and probable.

— Guillermo RamisMeteorologist Guillermo Ramis explaining climatological terminology during an interview.

The excessive rainfall expected in southern Brazil is identified as a primary driver for the rising levels of the Uruguay River. Ramis stressed the importance of decision-makers being aware of the situation, particularly concerning upstream dams. He warned that these dams might be forced to release water if they reach maximum capacity to prevent structural failure, further exacerbating flooding downstream.

In climatology, everything has a probability ranging from 0% to 100%, and possible is when the probability exceeds 70%.

— Guillermo RamisMeteorologist Guillermo Ramis clarifying the definition of 'possible' in a climatological context.

"August is going to be very difficult," Ramis stated, underscoring the urgency for preparedness and mitigation efforts as the powerful El Niño approaches.

The number of displaced people could reach 30,000 by the end of August.

— Guillermo RamisMeteorologist Guillermo Ramis's projection for the number of people likely to be displaced in Uruguay due to El Niño-related flooding.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by El País in Spanish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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