Meteorologists expect strong El Niño phenomenon this year

Global meteorologists are increasingly convinced that the El Niño climate phenomenon could develop into a very strong event later this year, the EU's Copernicus climate monitoring service reported Wednesday.

"The probability strongly points towards a moderate to strong or likely strong to record-breaking event at this time," stated Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus. In the latest update, 75 percent of meteorologists contributing to the monitoring service anticipate that sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean could rise 2.5 degrees Celsius or more above average by November.

According to AFP, this level of temperature increase has only occurred three times since the first major El Niño was registered in modern times in the late 1970s. El Niño is defined by elevated sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator. These warmer waters can lead to significant shifts in global weather patterns, potentially causing higher temperatures and increased rainfall in some areas, while others may experience less precipitation.

For instance, El Niño can trigger drought conditions in Australia and lead to cooler, rainier weather in the southern United States. The phenomenon typically lasts between nine and twelve months and occurs at intervals of two to seven years. The most recent El Niño took place in 2023-2024 and is believed to have contributed to 2023 being the second-warmest year on record and 2024 potentially becoming the warmest. The name "El Niño" translates to "The Boy" or "The Child" in Spanish, referencing the "Christ Child." South American fishermen originally encountered the phenomenon around Christmastime.

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The probability strongly points towards a moderate to strong or likely strong to record-breaking event at this time.