Mexican Economy Surges 1.5% in Second Quarter, Fastest Growth Since 2020

Mexico's economy experienced a significant rebound in the second quarter, growing by 1.5% compared to the previous quarter. This marks the most rapid expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the final quarter of 2020, when it surged by 4.3% after accounting for inflation and seasonal adjustments.

The robust growth was driven by key sectors. Services, which constitute two-thirds of Mexico's GDP and are closely tied to domestic consumption, increased by 1.5% on a quarterly basis. The industrial sector, representing the other third of the economy and more linked to foreign trade, saw a slightly higher rise of 1.6%. Additionally, agricultural activities accelerated significantly, growing by 3.3%, although this sector represents a smaller portion of the overall GDP.

The recent hosting of 13 matches for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico contributed an estimated 65 billion pesos to the economy, according to the Ministry of Tourism. This event likely provided a boost to various service-related industries.

Looking ahead, economic forecasts for 2026 show divergence. The federal government anticipates a GDP acceleration of 2.3%, as outlined in the preliminary economic policy criteria for 2027. However, the private sector consensus, based on a survey by Citi, predicts a more modest growth of 1.1%. Projections range from optimistic forecasts of 1.5% from institutions like BNP Paribas and Grupo Bursátil Mexicano to a more cautious outlook of 0.5% from Signum Research.

Adding to the global economic uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its growth forecast for Mexico downward, from 1.6% to 1.2% for the year. The IMF cited prevailing uncertainty due to trade fragmentation and warned that the conflict in the Middle East could further extend volatility in commodity prices, disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and negatively impact financial conditions.