Middle East war could end before Ukraine conflict, expert says

A lasting peace between the United States and Iran hinges on compromises neither side is prepared to accept, according to Middle East expert Ioana Constantin-Bercean. She notes that while a nuclear deal was previously reached, its collapse in 2018 highlights the fragility of such agreements.

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The main condition for an agreement, which we certainly cannot consider necessarily permanent, because we have had a nuclear agreement before and we all know what happened in 2018, the main condition would be for both sides to accept a certain set of compromises, which neither side is yet prepared to accept.

Constantin-Bercean explains that six months into the conflict, the US has not achieved its objectives, with Iran maintaining its enriched uranium levels and nationalist sentiment prevailing. Meanwhile, Iran's leadership leverages this momentum through asymmetric tactics regionally and internationally. Public opinion in the US and the West is divided on the necessity of the war.

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At half a year since the start of the war, the US has not met its objectives – the regime has not been changed, 60% enriched uranium is still in Iran, and nationalist sentiment has prevailed over external interference.

Former President Trump continues to emphasize Iran's nuclear threat, a stance consistent with the 2015 nuclear deal. However, Iran possesses the military resources, including drones and missiles, to launch attacks on US bases in the Persian Gulf, suggesting the conflict's continuation. The expert points out that the Strait of Hormuz remains a point of contention, despite some vessels navigating through Oman's waters.

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On the other hand, the Iranian leadership feels the momentum and acts accordingly, through asymmetric methods, both regionally and internationally.

Peace remains a distant concept, requiring substantial concessions from both parties, which are currently unwilling to engage. Accepting proposals unconditionally would be a blow to each side's image. Iran is unlikely to accept a zero-sum game, while the US seeks a resolution it can present as a victory. Regional developments, including a new pact between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, also warrant attention.

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President Trump continues to say that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon, which has also been said before, by signing the 2015 agreement.