Migrant crossings into Ceuta decline sharply, with researchers citing digital mobilization fatigue and increased security.

A recent attempt by migrants to breach the border into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta on Saturday, August 15, was marked by a significantly smaller turnout compared to the mass crossings seen in late July. Researchers analyzing the event suggest this decline reflects a "breakdown in the momentum of digital mobilization" that fueled the earlier surge. The element of surprise has been lost, and heightened security and vigilance have also contributed to the reduced numbers.

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The breakdown in the momentum of digital mobilization and the loss of the element of surprise, in addition to the tightening of security and vigilance.

Security data indicated an initial gathering of about 300 irregular migrants, primarily from sub-Saharan Africa, in the mountainous areas surrounding Ceuta. By mid-afternoon, authorities reported apprehending 294 individuals, including 248 from sub-Saharan Africa and 46 Moroccans. This contrasts sharply with the tens of thousands of migrants, mostly Moroccan, who surged into Ceuta in late July, a number estimated by the Moroccan Interior Ministry at 40,000, most of whom were later returned.

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The random digital mobilization has lost its effectiveness, after young people and their families realized the futility of these unknown calls.

Researchers like Ashraf Al-Rabouli emphasize that the "random digital mobilization" has lost its effectiveness, with young people and their families realizing the futility of unknown calls to action. He credits proactive authorities for their role, citing pre-emptive field deployment, secured transportation hubs, and the use of modern technology like drones in preventing gatherings. However, Al-Rabouli also stresses that security measures address only the symptoms, not the root causes, advocating for comprehensive social and economic policies to foster hope and rebuild trust.

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Security control deals with the symptom and the momentary flow, while diagnosing the phenomenon requires addressing the root.

Hassan Ben Talib, an expert in migration, urges caution against concluding that the phenomenon is over or that security alone was decisive. He acknowledges the clear security factor and the proactive measures taken by Moroccan authorities. However, he also points out that the context of this attempt differed significantly from late July, with increased border surveillance and a clearer security message. The memory of the previous attempt, with its associated risks, deaths, and returns to Morocco, likely influenced individuals' willingness to undertake such a dangerous venture. Ben Talib also notes a shift in the profile of participants, with a greater presence of sub-Saharan African migrants, suggesting the recent event may not be a direct replication of the July scene.

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The security factor is clear and cannot be ignored.