Military escalation between Iran and the United States: uncertainty in Hormuz

Tensions in the Middle East dramatically escalated over the weekend as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global trade, prompting retaliatory U.S. airstrikes. This intensification of conflict, which already affects 20% of the world's hydrocarbon trade, has led to a more than 4% surge in oil prices.

U.S. forces in the Middle East targeted Iranian military air defense systems, coastal radar sites, drone capabilities, and small boats. These actions aim to prevent Iran from blocking passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have attacked U.S. military bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, including a drone command center in Bahrain and air bases in Jordan and Kuwait.

The U.S. Central Command confirmed carrying out strikes against Iran in response to Iranian aggressions against three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait's military also reported responding to "hostile aerial targets" launched against its territory. These mutual offensives directly undermine a truce protocol signed on June 17, which granted a 60-day period for negotiations to end the Middle East war, a conflict that began on February 28 following an Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran.

Iranian state media reported U.S. bombings in southern and western Iran, including the island of Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, near the Strait. In Mahshahr, in southwestern Iran, one person was reported killed and four injured in a U.S. bombing, according to an official from the Khuzestan province cited by IRNA. Iran has condemned the U.S. bombings on its territory.