Moraes’s Russian military doctrine contaminates the election for good

The political crisis around Alexandre de Moraes has entered Brazil’s presidential campaign, after the Supreme Court justice responded to revelations about his relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro by raising the stakes in the institutional confrontation.

The article compares Moraes’s move with Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine. After NATO removed Kosovo from Yugoslavia in 1999, a weakened Russia developed a strategy of using limited nuclear strikes to force an adversary to retreat. Analysts call the approach “escalate to de-escalate.” Moraes, the argument goes, made his own tactical escalation on Thursday night by effectively calling for a high-stakes round of truco, a Brazilian card game.

The details of the political bargain remain unclear. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre ruled out impeaching Moraes, whom he called a friend, while invoking the “Dark Horse” case in a message aimed at Bolsonaro supporters. Brasília conversations also included suggestions that allies of Moraes on the Supreme Court held confidential inquiries involving a senator. With the congressional side tied down, Moraes’s network began working to invalidate proceedings led by Justice André Mendonça, who has emerged as an accuser in the dispute.

The author says Moraes’s allies are relying on the Supreme Court’s slow pace to exhaust the crisis before considering possible reprisals. A photograph showing them laughing nervously, taken by O Globo photographer Brenno Carvalho, suggested that the confrontation was moving toward a settlement. Mendonça has so far appeared to hold stronger cards, judging by an initial reaction from Justice Edson Fachin, but Moraes’s network is more powerful. Supporters may also seek to extend any annulment to matters involving Banco Master.

Lula carries the institutional cost of the turmoil because of the association he has built with Moraes during his term. A statement calling for a clear investigation is unlikely to erase that connection. Flávio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is trying to benefit from Mendonça’s technically questionable actions. A successful Sept. 7 protest could translate the Supreme Court crisis into gains in the polls, although Flávio’s involvement with Vorcaro makes the strategy risky. The “Dark Horse” case may have lost electoral force, but a new revelation could quickly change the picture.