NESG says business confidence rising despite soaring costs

Nigeria's business environment experienced a notable expansion in July 2026, with the Current Business Performance Index climbing to 108.6 points from 104.6 in June, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). This growth was broad-based, particularly in the Non-Manufacturing sector.

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Nigeria’s business environment recorded stronger expansion in July 2026. The overall Current Business Performance Index stood at 108.6 points, up from 104.6 points in June 2026 and 105.4 points in July 2025. This was driven by broad-based expansion across subsectors led by Non-Manufacturing.

However, the NESG's August 2026 Business Confidence Monitor report highlights persistent constraints. These include difficulties in accessing finance, energy shortages, high rental costs, insecurity, and infrastructural challenges. These factors continue to weigh on businesses despite the overall positive performance.

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Key constraints persisted, especially limited access to finance, energy shortages, high rental costs, insecurity, and infrastructural challenges during the month.

Looking ahead, the Future Business Expectations Index stood at 128.3 points in July 2026, a slight decrease from the previous month. This indicates sustained but cautious optimism among businesses regarding short-term conditions. Trade and Manufacturing sectors showed the strongest optimism, though concerns about rising costs, especially elevated energy prices, temper expectations.

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The Future Business Expectations Index stood at 128.3 points in July 2026, declining marginally from 128.4 in the previous month. This reflects sustained but cautious optimism about short-term business conditions.

The NESG specifically warns that the recent shift to dollar-denominated petrol pricing by Dangote Refinery could keep energy prices high in the coming months. This poses a significant risk to the sustainability of the current business recovery. While most sectors, except Services, remained in expansion territory, investment levels continued to contract, underscoring ongoing challenges.

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The cautious optimism signals firms’ concerns over cost pressures that could emanate from the recent shift to dollar-denominated petrol pricing by the Dangote Refinery, which could keep energy prices elevated in the coming months.