New China-Europe sea route challenges rail freight

A new maritime route connecting China and Europe is undergoing testing, presenting a competitive alternative to established rail freight services. The initial voyage, departing from Ningbo on August 15 and scheduled for weekly departures until October 3, aims to challenge the dominance of rail transport for goods moving between the two continents.

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The connection will be a real competition for rail transport between China and Europe. It offers similar or shorter transit times, greater cargo capacity, and the ability to handle a wider range of goods. This includes batteries and other cargo that is restricted on the rail route passing through Russia.

According to Rafał Hałada, Sales Director at ATC Cargo, the sea route offers comparable or shorter transit times than rail, alongside increased cargo capacity. Crucially, it can accommodate goods like batteries and other items restricted on the overland route through Russia. This flexibility addresses a key limitation of rail transport, potentially opening up new logistical possibilities.

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The announcements of subsequent voyages this autumn show that the project is gradually moving into the phase of practical tests.

The current service is a continuation of a successful trial in 2025. Przemysław Komar, Seafreight Product Director-CEE at Rohlig Suus Logistics, noted that the ongoing voyages this year are practical tests to determine if the 2025 results can be replicated on a regular schedule. Key performance indicators include actual transit times, punctuality, vessel fill rates, insurance costs, and the availability of return cargo.

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However, it depends on the overall demand. Let's remember that the service is created out of accumulated demand requiring fast transport time, while the possibility of passing through the northern route will likely remain for the next few years this season. The question remains whether accumulated demand for cargo transport with fast transport time will exist in the future.

Sebastian Gastecki, Managing Director at shiftX, believes the Ningbo-Gdynia connection has the potential for long-term integration into the shipping calendar, provided there is sustained demand. He points out that the service emerged from a backlog of demand for fast transport. The viability of the Arctic route, which offers significantly shorter delivery times compared to the route around Africa, will be assessed over the entire season. Hałada cautions against expecting immediate large-volume shifts from traditional ocean routes, suggesting that high-value, time-sensitive goods, or those unsuitable for rail, will be the most natural cargo for this northern sea passage.

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The most natural group of goods will therefore be high-value goods, sensitive to delivery time, and those that cannot be efficiently transported by rail.