New Iran War Benefits Tehran, But US Plan for Hormuz Is Unrealistic

The Middle East is engulfed in a renewed conflict between the United States and Iran, with hostilities spanning from northern Iraq to southern Yemen. US President Donald Trump has officially notified Washington of the war's resurgence, reinstating a naval blockade on Iranian ports and declaring US forces will control the Strait of Hormuz, demanding tolls from passing ships. Overnight airstrikes on Monday targeted Iranian bases near the strait, reportedly killing three in Bandar Abbas, according to Iranian media. Trump also indicated potential strikes on the secret Pickaxe Mountain facility near Natanz.

Iran has retaliated by firing rockets at US facilities in Bahrain and Jordan. The nation also attacked Kurdish groups in Iraq and oil tankers belonging to the United Arab Emirates off the coast of Oman. Simultaneously, pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in Yemen fired on the Saudi city of Abha, following Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa's airport, as reported by the Houthis.

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We will force the foreigners and their allies to submit to the will of the Iranian nation.

This escalation follows an earlier phase of the conflict from late February to early April, where the US and Israel attempted to overthrow Iran's leadership. While airstrikes caused significant damage, the regime survived and retaliated against Israel and Arab Gulf states. An April 8 ceasefire and a June 15 US-Iran agreement were intended to end the war, but the conflict has now reignited.

For Iran, control over the Strait of Hormuz is paramount. The regime considers its dominance of the waterway its sole effective leverage against the US, particularly as its nuclear program has been severely hampered by the war, diminishing its value as a bargaining chip in post-war negotiations. Tehran is willing to risk renewed tensions with Arab neighbors and economic setbacks from the US blockade and sanctions to maintain its supremacy.

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It is not America that is the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump claims, but Iran, and forever.