Nigeria's Education Crisis Now About System Capacity, Not School Enrollment

Nigeria's educational challenges have evolved, moving beyond simply increasing school enrollment to addressing the critical need for a system capable of providing quality learning. A new policy report from the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership argues that while access to education has expanded, the system is buckling under the strain.

The report, "Nigeria’s Education Capacity Crisis: Closing the Gap Between Enrolment Growth and System Capacity," authored by Professor Temitayo Shenkoya and Anita Olatunde, points to inadequate investment in essential areas like classrooms, teachers, infrastructure, and governance. This deficit has left the system unable to translate rising student numbers into improved educational outcomes, creating a structural capacity crisis rather than a temporary funding issue.

With 40.1 million pupils and students enrolled in basic and secondary education during the 2024/2025 academic session, the rapid increase has far outstripped necessary investments. Evidence of this strain includes classrooms averaging 60 students and roughly 66 students sharing a single toilet, indicating severe overcrowding and poor sanitation. Furthermore, Nigeria allocated only 0.3 percent of its GDP to public education in 2025, significantly lower than comparable African nations.

The authors contend that weak governance, fragmented planning, inadequate teacher deployment, and limited use of data hinder the system more than enrollment numbers. They call for a shift in focus from expanding access to strengthening institutional capacity, improving accountability, and adopting evidence-based planning. The development and deployment of the Digital Nigeria Education Management Information System (DNEMIS) are recommended as crucial for national planning and monitoring.

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Nigeria’s education challenge is no longer defined solely by access; it is increasingly one of system capacity.