Nigeria's solar expansion outpaces official data, report finds

Nigeria's solar power capacity is expanding rapidly, with an estimated 1.7 gigawatts to be installed in 2026, according to a report by Ember, a global energy think tank. This growth is part of a larger trend across Africa, where the continent is projected to add a record 17 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2026, a 45% increase from the previous year.

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estimates that Nigeria will install 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2026, as the use of solar energy continues to expand across the country.

However, the report, titled "The take-off in African solar that official statistics can’t yet see," reveals that a significant portion of this expansion goes unrecorded in official data. This is largely because the growth is driven by distributed solar systems, small-scale installations by households and businesses for their own electricity needs. These systems, often rooftop solar, are difficult for governments and utilities to track compared to large solar farms.

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much of the expansion is not reflected in official statistics, according to the report, largely because most of the new capacity is coming from small-scale solar systems installed by households and businesses for their own electricity needs.

The findings, produced in partnership with African Tech Futures Lab (ATFL), used Chinese customs data and a new methodology to estimate solar installations between 2023 and 2026. The report builds on Ember's previous work, which first indicated a solar boom in Africa.

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The take-off in African solar that official statistics can’t yet see

Distributed solar, defined as small-scale systems on the customer side of the electricity network, accounts for the majority of new capacity. Ember estimates that Africa added 26 gigawatts of total solar capacity between 2023 and 2025, with about 20 gigawatts being distributed solar. Commercial and industrial customers are leading this adoption, with payback periods as short as two to five years, driven by falling technology costs and the need for reliable, independent power generation.

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Commercial and industrial customers have been among the early adopters, accounting for at least 80 per cent of distributed solar capacity in most African markets where data is available.