Notes from Moscow. How Estonian diplomats already warned about Putin in 2000

As Ukraine enters its fifth year of war, the cautious observations made by Estonian diplomats in Moscow around the turn of the millennium now appear remarkably prescient. In the immediate aftermath of Vladimir Putin's ascent to power in August 1999, following Boris Yeltsin's unexpected appointment of the former FSB head as acting president, Estonian diplomatic dispatches back to Tallinn offered a starkly different perspective from the prevailing optimism in Western capitals.

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Americans, the English, and the French said that Russians are nice people. Now, looking back, it was of course wishful thinking – to think as one wanted it to be.

Indrek Tarand, then head of the Chancellery of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recalls the delicate balancing act Estonia had to perform. While expressing deep concerns about events in Russia, particularly the unfolding situation in Chechnya, which bore unsettling resemblances to the current conflict in Ukraine, Estonia could not openly voice these worries. Western nations were prioritizing good relations and close ties with Russia, often viewing the Russian people through a lens of wishful thinking, as Tarand noted. "Americans, the English, and the French said that Russians are nice people. Now, looking back, it was of course wishful thinking – to think as one wanted it to be," he admitted. Estonia had to tailor its opinions to the geopolitical realities of the time.

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The submissive mass still calls the war of destruction a 'counter-terrorism operation'.

Estonian reports from Moscow detailed the brutal tactics employed in Chechnya, including the planned complete destruction of Grozny, while Russian television presented a sanitized narrative of a "noble mission." The diplomats observed the use of bureaucratic euphemisms, such as referring to the Second Chechen War as a "counter-terrorism operation," mirroring the current designation of the war in Ukraine as a "special military operation." Furthermore, a summary sent on December 20, 1999, warned that the "Unity" party, supported by the Kremlin, was not a centrist force as Western analysts suggested. Instead, it adopted the patriotic rhetoric of communists, embraced war ideology, and praised tyranny – a precursor to the modern-day "United Russia" party formed through mergers. These early warnings from Tallinn highlight a consistent understanding within Estonia of the trajectory Russia was taking, an understanding that contrasted sharply with the hopeful, yet ultimately misplaced, optimism prevalent in many Western countries at the time.

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It is a party that has adopted the patriotic rhetoric of the communists, using the ideology of war and praising tyranny.