Oil volatility expected between $55-$60 a barrel in 2027-28

Forecasting oil prices for the next two years presents significant challenges, though analysts can estimate future trends under various conditions. Kamel Al-Harami, an independent oil analyst, suggests that oil prices might fluctuate between $55 and $60 per barrel in 2027-2028. He notes that any forecast relies on assumptions about weak demand, limited economic growth, and sluggish global activity.

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It is very difficult to forecast oil prices for the next two years.

Currently, Brent crude oil is trading around $76 per barrel, a notable decrease from its peak of over $123 per barrel four months prior. Russia has capitalized on this situation by increasing its crude oil sales globally. India has become a major buyer of Russian oil, importing over 2.7 million barrels per day following U.S. administration approvals. This shift has impacted traditional supply routes, particularly concerning exports from the Arabian Gulf.

Al-Harami dismisses the likelihood of a complete shutdown of crude oil or refined product exports from major producing countries, which collectively supply over 15 million barrels per day. He credits strategic oil reserves, short-term and long-term storage, and available capacity for preventing widespread panic and shortages during past disruptions. This experience has equipped oil-importing nations with better strategies for future resilience, including expanding storage and taking advantage of lower prices to build reserves, a practice long followed by the United States.

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Russia has benefited by increasing crude oil sales to various parts of the world after the U.S. administration allowed India to import more than 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude, making India the largest buyer of Russian oil.

While prices are currently at a comfortable level for consumers, Al-Harami expresses hope for similar or lower prices throughout 2027, cautioning against the unrealistic sharp and unpredictable fluctuations observed recently. He commends OPEC+ for its efforts in maintaining order and stability in the oil markets, despite the withdrawal of some members, and reaffirms the group's commitment to stabilizing prices in the coming years.

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OPEC+ has done a remarkable job in maintaining order and stability in the oil markets despite the withdrawal of some important members.