Orbán defeated, but the far-right eyes bigger prizes: Berlin and Paris

A wave of apprehension is rippling through European capitals following the electoral defeat of Hungary's Viktor Orbán. Many in Brussels and beyond breathed a sigh of relief, believing Europe would finally shed its "problem child" and move forward more cohesively without his constant vetoes and complaints. This sentiment, however, may be premature.

While Orbán's Fidesz party lost its grip after 16 years, the narrative of a declining far-right across Europe is being challenged by developments in the continent's major powers. The true barometer of European politics is not Budapest, but rather Berlin, Paris, and Rome. And the signals from these capitals are far from reassuring for those hoping for a shift away from right-wing populism.

In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has, for the first time, surged to the forefront of opinion polls. This rise is fueled by a renewed economic crisis, exacerbated by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and Berlin's continued support for Kyiv. The AfD now polls at 26-27%, significantly ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats, who have fallen to a historic low below 25%. This electoral landscape in Europe's largest economy is a stark warning.

Meanwhile, in France, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's National Rally continues its strong lead, and Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, despite a recent referendum setback, maintains a dominant position. These trends suggest that Orbán's defeat might be an isolated event rather than a turning point for the European far-right. The "king is naked" narrative, suggesting the far-right can be defeated, is being contradicted by the ground reality in key European nations.